Horse racing handicapping | Horse race handicapping

Value betting is all about backing horses at the right odds. Professional gamblers choose the right odds at which to back, rather than letting the bookies choose bad odds for them. Even if a horse is a dead cert , I won't back it if the odds aren't right.

Lesson 1 - bet on 'value'
Before you consider a bet first estimate the horse's winning chance. Then see if you can get value. Value is when the odds on offer are bigger than the winning chance. Back horses with more favourable odds in relation to their probability of winning and although you might lose some days, over the long-term your winners will more than make up for it.

Lesson 2 - Betting in proportion
Checking how much I have in my betting bank, I use this information to decide what the next stake should be (also dependent on the price of the horse.)
There's a world of difference between selecting horses and actually backing them. The price of a horse governs my decision whether or not to bet. If a horse is less than the winning chance I have assessed, I won't back it. On the other hand, if it is bigger than my estimation, I back it. The bigger the price, the more I have on the bet.

Lesson 3 - Betting Ratios
The Betting Ratios are also very important. For example, if I've assessed a horse's winning chance as 2/1 and it's 5/2, with a £6,000 Betting Bank the bet should be £400. If it's 11/4 it should be £545. This balancing of stakes is crucial. There's nothing worse than backing a winner and realising you should have more on. Betting Ratios discipline you to stake the correct amount to maximise profits.

Lesson 4 - the 10% rule
If you don't use Betting Ratios then a simple technique is to observe the 10% rule: If you've decided to invest £1,000 in ten tranches of £100 and your first horse loses, then stake next time not £100, but £90, then 10% of what you have left and so on. This protects your bank in the event of losing runs.

Lesson 5 - big runner handicaps
In Big 16-plus runner handicaps, more than 50% of the winners come from the first 4 in the betting. Eliminate the rest and concentrate your study on these fancied horses

Lesson 6 - Each way betting
An each way double on two 5/1 chances doubles your money if placed, and pays 35/1 for the win. Find two solid horses with a good chance of winning and an outstanding chance of being placed, and you can make a lot.

Lesson 7 - Watch out for the going
The quickest horses have a daisy cutter running action where their hooves just skim the ground. It's efficient and wastes less energy in picking up their legs too high. Great on firm ground. But on wet, slushy ground, they can't pick their feet out of the mud properly, a bit like running through the sea at the beach. Result? They lose.

Lesson 8 - Win even if your horses lose
When the favourite is heavily odds-on, the 2nd and 3rd favourite usually represent tremendous each way value. Find two races like this, have an each way double, and you can win even if your horses lose (as long as they are both placed, of course).

Lesson 9 - Don't chase your losses
The professional gambler has to learn to live with disappointment without allowing it to cloud their decision-making ability. Whenever I have a losing streak, I take a holiday. It's very hard to continue making the right judgments if you're losing. You tend to chase your losses.

Lesson 10 - Watch the Novice Chasers
Superior novice hurdlers who won last time out making their seasonal debut in Novice Chases, are usually a good bet (contrary to popular belief). In fact, on average, you win more times than they fall.